Women’s Relative Income and Union Dissolution: Economic Independence, Economic Constraints or Gender Norms?

WIP Seminar

Tuesday, March 31
12:15 to 13:00
UNIL - Géopolis, Room 5799

Davide Ziino: "Women’s Relative Income and Union Dissolution: Economic Independence, Economic Constraints or Gender Norms?"

Rising women’s labour market participation has transformed the traditional male breadwinner model. Numerous studies document a positive association between women’s income relative to their partner and union dissolution. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain contested: does higher female relative income increase separation because it enhances women’s economic independence, or because it challenges traditional gender norms?

To address this question, the analysis examines whether the effect of women’s relative income varies across different economic contexts. First, it tests heterogeneity by women’s individual poverty, measured using a novel indicator based on individual income that captures the ability to sustain an independent household. Under the economic independence hypothesis, the effect of relative income should be stronger among women above the poverty threshold. By contrast, if gender norms are more relevant, relative income should remain a strong predictor regardless of women’s economic autonomy. The analysis further assesses whether the relationship varies by men’s individual poverty and household-level poverty, thereby testing cost-of-divorce arguments.

Using longitudinal data from UKHLS (2009–2024), the study follows 19’403 heterosexual couples in a couple-year panel design. Union dissolution is identified when partners no longer report cohabiting in subsequent waves and analysed using discrete-time event-history models. The key explanatory variable is the woman’s share of total couple income, interacted with measures of individual and household poverty. Individual poverty (for both partners) is defined as having an income below 60% of the national median equivalised household income, with the same threshold applied at the household level. The analysis also includes a measure of the division of housework to capture gendered arrangements within the couple.

The results show that a higher female income share is associated with an increased probability of union dissolution. However, this relationship does not vary by women’s individual poverty, offering limited support for the economic independence hypothesis. Instead, the effect emerges only above the household and male poverty thresholds, suggesting that material constraints limit separation. Overall, the findings point to an interplay between economic constraints and gendered role expectations, rather than economic independence alone.